Under the 1.0 and 1.1 editions of Dystopian Wars, small aircraft (represented by Tiny Flyer Tokens) were of minimal utility. While a full-strength dive bomber or torpedo bomber wave could put a hurt on an enemy, it was easily intercepted, and once it had attacked the game would most likely be over as the squadron now had to land, re-arm, and re-launch, with each action taking a turn.  That effectively made TFTs one-shot weapons, and also made carrier-centric fleets tactically fool-hardy. However, things are now different; as I mentioned in my review of the 2nd edition rules for Dystopian Wars, Support aircraft Squadrons (SAS, the replacement for TFTs) have gotten significantly more potent. Additionally, carrier models have gotten more useful, thanks to the simplification of the rules for re-arming and re-launching SAS’s. These actions can now be accomplished in a single turn. This raises a provocative question: Is a carrier-centric fleet now a viable build, defined as being able to go toe-to-toe with a fleet built around dreadnoughts and battleships?

The Rules Changes: A Brief Recap

While I don’t want to completely rehash the rulebook, I do want to briefly cover the important changes that have improved the way SASs and carriers work in DW 2.0. First, the fact that SASs no longer have to worry about fuel immediately makes them “faster,” even though the max movement of each type of SAS hasn’t changed. This is because a player no longer has to creep them along at half speed, in order to carefully conserve their limited fuel.  Additionally, the ability to rapidly re-arm and replace shot down tokens means that SASs now have a legitimate shot at making multiple sorties over the course of an average (roughly 5 turn) game. Dive bombers have also gotten boost thanks to the fact that shields no longer work against bombs.

Of course, not everything has been a plus; torpedo bombers now must close within 4″ of their target, and the base to-hit number for both torpedo bombers and dive bombers has gone to a 4+ from a 3+ (however, this later tweak is mitigated by the fact that Hunter MARs are pretty common for a given faction’s SAS, meaning that for most factions either the torpedo bomber or dive bombers will be hitting on a 3+ anyway).

Carriers vs. Dreadnoughts: A Thought Experiment

Setup

What follows is a “math-hammer” approach to the question. For the following, I assume that we are using a standard 48″ wide playing area, with 8″ deployment zones. For the fun of historical irony, I’m facing off a EotBS Hachiman-class Dreadnought against two FSA Saratoga-class fleet carriers. While this is already 10 points in favor of the EotBS, I am also chipping in a shield generator for the Hachiman (for the sake of argument). For deployment, the Hachiman will start right on the 8″ line, while the Saratogas will start at 4″, so that they can put their SAS squadrons right on the 8″ line. For maneuvering, I’m assuming that the two forces are closing, the Saratogas going their minimum 2″ per turn and the Hachiman going its 6″ per turn (no Tesla generator shenanigans this time!), for a combined closure rate of 8″ per turn. Oh, and for the sake of clarity, I’m omitting all local support SASs. The FSA’s dive bombers gain the Hunter, Surface (+1) rule, so the Saratogas will be spitting out one SAS of 5 dive bombers and one of 4 dive bombers each. The results of each attack will be based on averages derived from the excellent DW Hits Calculator developed by Nucreum over on the SG forums.

Turn 1

The first thing we note, regardless of which side activates first, is that the FSA will be in range of the Hachiman right from the start. At RB 4, the Dreadnought will be firing with 5 dice from its main guns, and 10 AD from its rockets. The guns aren’t much of a worry to the carrier’s DR of 6, but the rockets are definitely worrisome. Those 10 AD of rockets will generate an average of 8 hits, while the Saratoga’s AA will shoot down an average of 3. That would normally negate a hit on the Saratoga (DR 6), but doesn’t leave a lot of margin! The 4 SASs of Dive Bombers, in the mean time, will close their full 12 inches, which puts them 14″ from the Hachiman. Factoring in their own 2″ minimum move, the two FSA carriers will end their turn 28″ from the Blazing Sun dreadnought.

Turn 2

Giving the Hachiman first move again, the Dreadnought will be able to move to within 22″ of the FSA ships, and will have at least one of the SASs in range for an AA attack. With 7 AA dice, the Hachiman should be able to score 3.5 hits on average, which will be enough to shoot down one SAW; I am assuming this SAW is coming out of one of the SASs with 5 bombers, leaving three SASs of 4 tokens and one SAS of 5.  Now in RB 3, the DN’s shooting becomes a bit deadlier, with the gunnery dice going up to 9. This should still not be enough to punch through the Saratoga’s armor on average, but the margin there is still very close. All 4 SASs will make it in to attack the Hachiman, which is where things get interesting.

The first SAS of 4 bombers will lose one to AA, dropping it to 3. This leaves 3 SAWs generating 9 AD, producing an average of 7.5 hits thanks to the Surface Hunter (+1) MAR. This is enough to cause one point of damage to the Hachiman, dropping its AA by 1 die. The next SAS of 4 to come in will thus be facing 6 AD of AA, enough to strip away another token. However, that SAS will on average generate another hit on the DN, stripping a second hull point and dropping the AA rating another die. At this point, with only 5 AD, the Hachiman will no longer reliably shoot down an incoming SAW, as those 5 AA dice will only generate an average of 2.5 hits. However, here I’m giving credit to the EotBS ship for getting that hit, and again reducing the third SAS of 4 SAWs to 3, which are still enough to ding the Hachiman for his third point of damage. With only 4 AA dice left, the remaining SAS of 5 SAWs will get through unmolested on average, dealing out 15(!) dice hitting on 3+.  Even with an average hit rate, that is still a critical hit on the Hachiman. And, in keeping with my theme of playing the averages, I assign that crit as a Hard Pounding, resulting in the dreadnought losing 2 more HP and 3 AP. The Saratogas speed up, closing their full 6″ move, which should just get them to RB 2 of the dread. Their fore volley guns will only manage about 2 hits on average, factoring the Hachiman’s shields into the equation.

Turn 3

The Blazing Sun dreadnought has been pounded, taking 5 points of hull damage and losing 3 AP. However, the Hachiman is far from out of the fight; the Blazing Sun’s dreadnought is well-equipped with rockets and torpedoes, meaning she is a fighting force to the end since these weapons ignore hull damage! Nor have the Americans gotten off lightly; while the carriers themselves have thus far evaded damage, their air wings have been ravaged. Three of the SASs are now down to just 3 SAWs, and all of exhausted their ordnance.

Again assuming the Blazing Sun player has managed to secure the first activation, the Hachiman uses its 6″ move to line up a torpedo shot on one carrier, with a linked main turret shot and a linked rocket attack on the other (all at RB 2). Despite the Hachiman’s Faster Torpedoes MAR being of no use, his 12 AD of torps will easily punch through a Saratoga’s 5 dice of CC and cause a point of damage. The second Saratoga will receive 11 AD of rockets from the dreadnought, but her 5 AD of Ack Ack will allow her to narrowly avoid damage. The turret attacks are much more serious; even with 5 points of damage, the Hachiman still puts out a double-turret linked attack of 12 AD, sufficient to achieve a critical hit on the second Saratoga, which I am awarding as a Hard Pounding (2 HP and 3 AP lost). The Hachiman can also attempt an AA attack on a SAS, but with only 2 dice left, it is a long shot.

For the Americans, the priority has to be re-arming and replenishing their SAS. The 4 SAS activate first, moving into position for the carriers to end their moves within 4″. The carriers, one with 1 point of damage and one with 2 points of damage, will have  8 and 7 carrier points to work with, respectively. The two Saratogas maneuver into carrier action range (4″) of their SAS, which I’m also assuming puts them just outside of RB 1 of the Hachiman. The first carrier rearms the healthy SAS of 5 SAWs, and replenishes one SAS back to 4 SAWs, using 3 Carrier Points. The second Saratoga uses 3 carrier points to replenish her SASs to 4 and 5 tokens, and then 4 more points to rearm both. The carriers, even assuming they were able to unmask their broadside guns, would not have enough firepower to break through the Hachiman’s shielded armor.

Turn 4

The Hachiman, having evaded any additional damage during Turn 3, can expect similar damage production from this turn. By this time, the Hachiman will be in RB 1 by the end of his 6″ move, possibly in boarding range. This will remove the rockets from the equation, but even so the Blazing Sun will be able to easily hit one American carrier with torpedoes for a point of damage and cause a second crit with the dreadnought’s main guns. However, the Hachiman is now in the teeth of the American dive bombers; all for SASs make a second attack run, and with its existing damage the Hachiman is not likely to thin the attacking horde of SAWs with AA to any appreciable degree. Each of the SASs with 5 SAWs will therefore expect to hit for a critical, while the two SASs of 4 tokens will cause a single point of damage each, easily finishing off the stricken Blazing Sun Dreadnought.

Result & Analysis

At the end of Turn 4, the FSA has sunk the EotBS dreadnought in exchange for one Saratoga that has 2 points of damage and another Saratoga with 4 points of damage and 6 AP lost. This is clearly a favorable result for the carrier fleet concept, though caution is warranted. First of all, the Americans could have easily started taking damage earlier in the game, reducing their ability to perform carrier actions during the all-important 3rd round rearming and replenishment. Note that even with only light damage to the carriers, there was only just enough carrier points to go around. Second, the Blazing Sun commander did not have local support or a supporting fleet available; both would have greatly boosted the number of AA dice available for defense of the Hachiman (though that particular sword cuts both ways, as the FSA carriers would also have a respectable accompanying fleet that could thin out the Blazing Sun formation ahead of the SASs). Third, I assumed for my example that the Blazing Sun player would charge straight into RB 1 as quickly as possible. If, instead, the Hachiman held at RB 2 or RB 3, he would have been able to still put out decent fire power while complicating the FSA player’s attempts to replenish and rearm the SASs. Finally, it must be kept in mind that the preceding was based on averages, and as we all know the dice gods can be much more fickle!

Still, the carriers did manage to win out over the dreadnought. Keys to this success were the Big Fuel Tanks and Surface Hunter MARs; Anything that can boost the DR of a SAW to 3 or allow it to hit on a 3+ should be given very careful consideration. Using torpedo bombers may or may not have led to the same result; their greater threat range is offset by the fact that their attacks are subject to a “triple play” of AA against the SAWs as well as CC and shields. Because of that boost in defense, I predict the dive bomber will be the SAS of choice for many players.

Conclusion

SASs have definitely gotten much stronger, and upon investigation a carrier-based fleet may no loner be the the recipe for disaster it was under the old rules. The thought experiment above clearly shows that it is possible for a dreadnought to be taken out by the equivalent points cost in carriers and their air wing.   However, a carrier fleet depends on maintaining the carriers out of the line of battle, as they are quite frail and the player will be depending on them to provide the main punch for the fleet against large enemy ships. This also means that the “staying power” of a carrier list may be more limited.

Bottom line, a fleet build around its carriers is at least theoretically possible. However, a number of factors make the decision to base a fleet around carriers a risky one, and it remains to be seen how this fleet will perform during actual game conditions.

Until next time!